The study of Lithuania 's defense power

 

                                                      Lithuanian army parade in Vilnius

Edmundas Jakilaitis , a journalist and head of the "Strong Together"(Stiprūs kartu) organization, presented the study of Lithuania 's defense power to the public for the first time . The research was carried out in Washington by New​​​​ generation warfare " center, together with Lithuanian military experts, simulated two scenarios of a military conflict - what awaits if in 2027 Russia will attack Lithuania.​​

The study reviewed the first 10 days of the military conflict, after which Lithuania would have to defend itself not alone, but together with NATO allies. The second simulation scenario was successful for Lithuania, during which almost no territory was lost, and the losses suffered by the enemy significantly exceeded the losses of Lithuania and the allies.

                                                                   Lithuanian JLTV

"Over the next 4 years, by allocating an additional 10 billion for the defense of the euro, Lithuania can effectively resist the attack of the armed forces of the Russian Federation for 10 days. During those 10 days, Lithuania would essentially lose its territory, and there would be no real threat to the existence of the state. Such a 10-day period is necessary so that NATO allies can make decisions, send their allies and help attack Lithuania „, E. Jakilaitis stated at the Lithuanian Business Forum on Thursday.

 

 

Together with the USA, Germany and Poland Lithuania prepared​ from the same​ scenarios​ choose what would happen if​​ Russia to decide​​ to attack Baltic country​​.

As one of the points of this plan, the defense of Daugavpils (Latvia) was also included - Lithuanians have said that they will help protect the city with all their forces.

"When the war with Russia begins, Lithuania will fight in the south-east of Latvia, in the axis of the city of Daugavpils „.

During the study of the defense forces of Lithuania, several situations are simulated, which help to predict the end of the military conflict.

According to them, Russia will attack Lithuania in 2027. During the simulation, it is calculated how Lithuania manages to repel the attack, taking into account all the currently known conditions of that period, including the fact that a German brigade is stationed in Lithuania.

 In order to limit the pressure from the east, the Estonian-Russian border town of Narva and the Narva river would play a very important role in defending the territory of Estonia. Estonia also had to defend against attacks from Pskov, located less than 100 kilometers from Estonia, near Lake Pskov and the Estonian border.

Without stopping the Russian forces, Latgala ( region of Latvia ) would be occupied .

 As part of his "new generation of warfare, " Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the General Intelligence Service (GRU) to develop plans how to turn Latgala into " Baltic Donbass „.

Daugavpils, as the second largest city in Latvia, is the administrative center of the Latgale region. The Daugavpils axis is vitally important, so that Russian forces do not spread far into Latvia or Lithuania, therefore Russia would have to invade, and Lithuania would also have to defend this territory, according to the research scenario.

"Lithuania has to fight in the south-east of Latvia, in the axis of Daugavpils, because the defense of the line of the Daugava River is necessary in order to prevent the main operational attack of Russia „, - says the presentation of the study.

Several situations are simulated in the study, helping to predict the end of the military conflict in Lithuania.

 

Lithuania defends itself with available capabilities – first scenario

 

Defensive power is lacking, it is predicted that it would not be able to protect the largest cities - Vilnius and Kaunas. It is predicted that in the first days of the war, enemy forces will move from Belarus to Vilnius. The attack towards Vilnius would last about five days, and on the sixth day Vilnius would be surrounded. Although the capital would hold, The Russian army (supported by Belarus) moved towards Kaunas.

 And unstoppable Russian army would advance from Latvia to the west and southwest, occupying the north - eastern part of Lithuania, while in the Kaliningrad enemy would advance to the east, then to the southeast. to meet the division from Belarus via Suvalkija . It is predicted that in 2027, an army-sized military unit(s ) will appear in the Kaliningrad .

As stated in the study, in the event of war in Vilnius, attacks would most likely be organized in Kaunas as well, not only pre - military , but also civilian  infrastructure.​​​ It is predicted that within 10 days Russian soldiers will besiege Vilnius and approach Kaunas.

" De facto, according to this scenario, we are on the road to defeat, " says reserve colonel Gintaras Ažubalis.

 

                                                                                            @Stiprūs kartu

                                              Lithuanian infantry fighting vehicles Vilkas

It is calculated that during the 10 days of the invasion of Lithuania, the Lithuanian forces would lose 17 tanks, 145 armored / infantry fighting vehicles, 17 artillery guns and 3,650 soldiers.

The enemy's losses are more pronounced - during this operation, the occupiers would lose 411 tanks, 1019 armored / infantry fighting vehicles, 254 artillery guns and 11420 soldiers. Although Lithuania's losses are smaller, Lithuania would not be able to defend its big cities with the available resources.

 

The second scenario is more optimistic. 

 

In 2027, Lithuania is fortified and has many more weapons: military helicopters Apache, more HIMARS batteries and more .

                                                     @Ministry of National Defense of Lithuania

predicted that the day before to the breakthrough, the forces of the Russian army began to move west towards Daugavpils. At that time, the 20th corps of Belarusian forces was stationed at the border near Vilnius.

The next echelon of the enemy is at the Belarusian border with Lithuania and Latvia, in the vicinity of Minsk.

Day 1 of the war.

 Russian special operations forces arrive in Estonia, the islands of Sarema and Hyjuma . The Russian army advances from the east and enters Daugavpils.​​​ The Lithuanian army with the deployed German brigade responded with artillery fire and the actions of their mechanized forces. On the same day, the Belarusian army attacks the defense forces of Vilnius. Russia-backed Belarus makes long-range strikes and moves to north - west, that is, in the direction of Vilnius. Lithuania is attacked with artillery strikes from the Kaliningrad. Lithuania responds to them with M270 MLRS or HIMARS.

Day 2 of the war. Lithuanian HIMARS destroy the 15th brigade of the Russian army, and military helicopters " Apache " – 62nd tank brigade.​​​​​ Belarusian forces attack Vilnius and suffer huge losses.​​ Military helicopters attack the 7th Belarusian tank brigade.

From the side of the Kaliningrad, units of the Russian army strike at to the north in the direction of Tauragė and to the east in the direction of the Suvalki corridor.

                 @retv.lv  The Rezekne zemessardze battalion is armed with Patria armored vehicles

Day 3 of the war.

Russian forces are fully involved in hostilities in Latvia: the 2nd Army attacks Daugavpils, NATO forces remain outside the city limits. Coordinated HIMARS and Apache strikes then destroy the enemy 's 7th Tank Brigade and a third of the 90th Tank Division attempting to advance to​​​ north of Vilnius. The forces of the 11th Army try to break out of Karaliaučius, but suffer heavy losses .

The 4th day of the war.

In the north, the 30th Russian brigade tries to push forward, but it is destroyed by Lithuanian military helicopters. At Vilnius, the enemy's strength is less than 50%. Lithuanian and German forces are pushing Russian soldiers back across the border at Karaliaučius.

Day 5 of the war.

 With the help of " Apache " and HIMARS, units of the Lithuanian army block the road to further enemy penetration into north​​ ​German tank battalion reinforces Vilnius, Apache and HIMARS attacks suppress Russian attack.​

The 6th day of the war.

 In the north, Russian forces are suffering heavy losses. Unless the force is strengthened, further progress is unlikely. The situation around Vilnius is similar. Russian forces ( backed by Belarus) are destroyed or stopped.

to this scenario, after six days, the Lithuanian forces should stop the four units of the Russian army that used their capabilities.

Main weapons used by the Lithuanian forces are HIMARS systems, Apache military helicopters, artillery, mechanized forces, tanks and anti - tank forces.

Summarizing the results of the simulation, the conclusion is clear - Lithuania could effectively resist the attack of Russian forces for 10 days, but only if it allocates 10 billion for defense in the next four years. euros.​

The scenarios were formed taking into account the current military investments of Lithuania, the arrival of the German brigade to Lithuania and other factors. In the first scenario, Lithuania had developed the military capabilities it is developing now, including the German brigade. In the second scenario, Lithuania invested an additional 10 billion. euros in the period of 4 years to the development of defense capabilities.​​​

During the simulations that lasted for several days, Ben Hodges, the former commander of the NATO ground forces in Europe, was on the Lithuanian side, together with the US helicopter aviation and artillery ground colonels. The entire simulation was observed by representatives of the Presidency of the Republic of Lithuania and the Defense Staff.

The forces of the Russian Federation were led by “New generation warfare " research center expert dr . Philip Petersen.