The causes of unrest in Ukraine. Gas war. Part two

It is already spent about two years since I wrote about the escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Russia. Actually I was not much shore that my prediction could materialize. We have the state of war in Ukraine. Innovative war which Europe has not seen before, so far. So the challenges for Europe and particularly Ukraine itself are innovative. So it is worth for a close look at it. What happened in those years new, where the forecast did not materialized and where – the contrary, was writhe.

It was written very much about Maidan and why protests have aroused in Ukraine. So I will be sort. Initially, protest arose spontaneously, when the Ukrainian president Yanukovych refused to sing a free trade agreement with the European Union. After long and series protest escalation came in the end of February. When Yanukovych regime started to use force against the protesters. It has ended with the victory of Maidan and Yanukovich has escaped from the country. Before that it occurred many pictures showing mass murder. In this action has taken place the special forces of Ukraine(Berkut) and Russia.

As a revenged of loosing power in Ukraine, Russians has occupied the Crimea.

                                        Swalow`s nest castle @ www.news.kiev.ukraine.info

Ukraine has lost not only cost line in the Black sea but also rescoses that are in the sea.

Surprisingly the Ukrainian army has taken no action to stand against Russian aggression. The cool thing is that Russian Special Forces were able to learn quickly from Maidan fighters, mostly from Pravyj sector organization. They sized administrative buildings using the same tactic as Ukrainians. They have done it in Crimea and they do it in East Ukraine also. Indirectly to annexation has helped Germany by providing military training and strategy for the Russian military . It sounds curious but it is the fact.

                             Ukrainian soldier stands guard @ www.themoscowtimes.com

As said EU parlament member, Vytautas Landsbergis, it looks like Russians wants to restore the Soviet Union, by using propaganda, agressive behavior, the lies, the conquest of neibours. What should be next steps we will see soon? We have seen voting in the East Ukraine, and they have some support from the population, but it is not  70% as they saying.

Russian today is an enemy, saying Landsbergis; it is a competitor who would rather destroy the opponent. As the European  parliament member Landsbergis  saying  the Russians trying to ignore EU as political unit. They a dealing with countries individually. And probably it was count that EU will do nothing against the Crimea annexation. But it was wrong. Putin has counted wrong.

Once Putin has made one example. He has used one situation from the schools life. If two classmates fighting to each other, the guilty will be the one who will lose. Landsbergis saying that the Russia is rolling in this logic.

The same strategy we can see in Eastern Ukraine. They are using local population for the control of cities.

The difference is that Ukrainians using army in the Eastern Ukraine. But it has made not very much progress. Russian separatist controlling Luhansk and Donetsk. They want to take over Odessa too and all Ukraine.

But let’s go back a little bit to the technological stuff. What for this web site is made? Why Russia is so interested to take over Ukraine? Well first of all they are motivated  historically, they think they have right to the Ukraine. But if you are thinking in that way, they have right to Finland and Baltic states too. The EU means that nations have the right for the self determination by doing it in the elections form. By the Russians meaning - nations have the right to follow, what allowing to do for them bigger nations. And to fulfill these expectations. And now it is the Russian nation who set the roles for the others.

That’s why they are against the elections  25 of May. It looks like election will vin Poroshenko, pro European candidate. Of course Ukraine is very dependent on businessmens positions too .In this way the country can be described as Eastern European country.

Eastern Ukrainians are closely related with Russia, and this is not ideologically but economically too. There are quite a lot of military enterprises, which supplying Russian army helicopters engines, aircraft carriers. A large part of Russians nuclear arsenal is endowed Ukrainian navigation systems, as well as the production of ballistic missiles. Russia annually imports about 400 helicopter engines. They can easily life without Ukrainians chocolate, but without the Ukrainian military production hardly. They will not be able to make new engines for helicopters up to 2020.

                                         Ukraine helicopter @ www. independent.ie

 Of course they can buy it from one of the NATO country too. Where Ukraine selling its military products? This is China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Russia. With the broking ties will suffer both parties. 80% of Russia’s nuclear arsenal rockets are made or designed in Ukraine. So why they should not take over territory, especially when about 30% of the local populations are for it. 

Maidan has rised as pro  EU and anticorruption movement.Ukrainians want to build their country by using European values. But some in the East part do not. It was interesting, that Julia Tymoshenko, who was freed, does not have very much support among the population. They remember that she became reach from the gas business and her daughter during the massacre in the Maidan has relaxed in Rome…

So are there more reasons to control the Ukraine for Russians, I think so. First of all in Russia population has only 140 mln. Spain, Germany and France together already exceed Russia.

Another reason is that Ukraine has fertile land.

                                            @ www.2b1stconsulting.com

And the third – Ukrainian natural resources (coal and shale gas). There are activities in Juzovks project, at Slovensk by Shell and Olesskaya at Lvov by Chevron. Juzovsk felt contains 3.6 trillion in shale gas and Olesskaya 3 trilion. After Ukraine will begin extraction of gas, it is enough to get 15-20 billion cubic meters per year for a be gas exporter. And it would be so much years.

Russia at the beginning ignored shale gas extraction. But seeing the success of the U.S.

It became quite clear why Russia has so strong interest in Eastern Ukraine. If Ukraine stands up the pressure – it may be that after five years it will be not necessarily to import gas from Russia for Ukraine. And Ukraine will export gas to Europe by itself as Norway does it.

But so far information received it showing that Ukraine splits and this is not benefit, especially not in favor of the Ukraine…