prognosemaker

                                                        Lithuanian army parade in Vilnius Edmundas Jakilaitis , a journalist and head of the "Strong Together" (Stipr ūs kartu ) organization, presented the study of Lithuania 's defense power to the public for the first time . The research was carried out in Washington by New​​​​ generation warfare " center, together with Lithuanian military experts, simulated two scenarios of a military conflict - what awaits if in 2027 Russia will attack Lithuania.​​ The study reviewed the first 10 days of the military conflict, after which Lithuania would have to defend itself not alone, but together with NATO allies. The second simulation scenario was successful for Lithuania, during which almost no territory was lost, and the losses suffered by the enemy significantly exceeded the losses of Lithuania and the...

Mariupol The letter was received by the Lithuanian Minister of Foreing Affairs from Nadezhda, a resident of Mariupol. It was announced at the Europen Council, translated by Roma Kriaučiūnienė. Nadezhda managed to leave the besieged city. The second part of the article tells about Lithuanian film director Mantas Kvedaravicius. In 2016 he made a documentary about Mariupol . When the war broke out , he could not to come back. Boath food and went on his last trip with his fiancee. As a film director he coud not fail to document and create even in a besieged city. That is what his fiancee, Hanna, is talking about...  Before the war , Mariupol had a population of about 400000 and was an important Ukrainian port city near the Azov sea. Its surroundings are rich in iron ore.   The city is currently surrounded by the Russian forces , it has been agreed that at least part of the population will be released. The city lacks food, water, is constantly under fire. The city was defended...

I just recently heard that Zygmund Bauman has died.  He was born in 1925 in Poland, was professor of sociology at Leeds University, head of department. He was interested in many topics. Fascinated me their insights about modernity. He was perhaps the only sociologist who admired me.  It was the Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas where the first time I have meet him, not personally, but his works. Later, in 2007 the University gave him an honorary doctorate. One time at the meeting with journalists he sad  “I am not a prophet”. It would be some misunderstanding to call philosopher a prophet. Despite this the professor liked to carry away and analyse, and this thinking’s you can call almost prophetic. He was productive, has written more than fifty books. He called to look to his ideas as a test. To show possible consequences of the present processes. The same thing hooked me and I started to go deeper in my studies. But let’s go back to the professor.   ...

                                                                                    Fur design @ Saga furs The winter has begun and it is a good time to write about fur. Since I have worked there many years, I can say something as well. I always was charmed by women wearing fur coats. Of course climate changes have made some adjustments in Lithuania too. But at least one month we have winter, temperature drops below -20 degrees. Although the modern fashion industry is extremely flexible and producing coats from other staff too or combining fur with other materials. But in the cold weather if you have to stay for a longer time fur coats are number one.                                  ...

It is already spent about two years since I wrote about the escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Russia . Actually I was not much shore that my prediction could materialize. We have the state of war in Ukraine . Innovative war which Europe has not seen before, so far. So the challenges for Europe and particularly Ukraine itself are innovative. So it is worth for a close look at it. What happened in those years new, where the forecast did not materialized and where – the contrary, was writhe. It was written very much about Maidan and why protests have aroused in Ukraine . So I will be sort. Initially, protest arose spontaneously, when the Ukrainian president Yanukovych refused to sing a free trade agreement with the European Union. After long and series protest escalation came in the end of February. When Yanukovych regime started to use force against the protesters. It has ended with the victory of Maidan and Yanukovich has escaped from the country. Before that it occur...